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Think the Internet Leads to Growth? Think Again hass associates review articles Think the Internet (More) hass associates review articles Think the Internet Leads to Growth? Think Again Remember the year 2000 in the months after the Y2K bug had been crushed, when all appeared smooth sailing in the global economy? When the miracle of finding information online was so novel that The Onion ran an article, “Area Man Consults Internet Whenever Possible?” It was a time of confident predictions of an ongoing economic and political renaissance powered by information technology. Jack Welch—then the lauded chief executive officer of General Electric (GE)—had suggested the Internet was “the single most important event in the U.S. economy since the Industrial Revolution.” The Group of Eight highly industrialized nations—at that point still relevant—met in Okinawa in 2000 and declared, “IT is fast becoming a vital engine of growth for the world economy. … Enormous opportunities are there to be seized by us all.” In a 2000 report, then-President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers suggested (PDF), “Many economists now posit that we are entering a new, digital economy that could inaugurate an unprecedented period of sustainable, rapid growth.” It hasn’t quite worked out that way. Indeed, if the last 10 years have demonstrated anything, it’s that for all the impact of a technology like the Internet, thinking that any new innovation will set us on a course of high growth is almost certainly wrong. That’s in part because many of the studies purporting to show a relationship between the Internet and economic growth relied on shoddy data and dubious assumptions. In 1999 the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland released a study that concluded (PDF), “… the fraction of a country’s population that has access to the Internet is, at least, correlated with factors that help to explain average growth performance.” It did so by demonstrating a positive relationship between the number of Internet users in a country in 1999 with gross domestic product growth from 1974 to 1992. Usually we expect the thing being caused (growth in the 1980s) to happen after the things causing it (1999 Internet users). In defense of the Fed, researchers at the World Bank recently tried to repeat the same trick. Within the U.S., investment in the uses of the Internet for business applications had an impact on wage and employment growth in only 6 percent of counties—those that already had high incomes, large populations, high skills, and concentrated IT use before 1995, according to a recent analysis (PDF) by Chris Forman and colleagues in the American Economic Review. Investments in computers and software did yield a return for most companies—but the return wasn’t anything special. hass associates review articles Think the Internet Leads to Growth? Think Again More Aarticles: http://www.linkedin.com/groups/hass-associates-4854820 http://www.goodreads.com/group/show/95364-hass-associates (Less)
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10 Bet You Can't Do That Again rapidgator.net ext: .mkv 314 MB date: 2013-06-20
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