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2 Days Sun Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, (More) Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C4 at 29/1958Z from a region just around the southeast limb.
Region 1560 (N04E36) a Dao-beta type group was numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (30 August - 01 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day 1 (30 August). Days 2 and
3 (31 August - 01 September) are expected to be quiet to unsettled
with a slight chance for active conditions due to effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 118
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/20/05
This movie was produced by Helioviewer.org. See the original at http://helioviewer.org/?movieId=JTc55 or download a high-quality version from http://helioviewer.org/api/?action=downloadMovie&id=JTc55&format=mp4&hq=true (Less)
LASCO C2/C3 Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, (More) Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Region 1520 (S17W89), set to
rotate off the west limb today, produced all of todays flare
activity, consisting of two C3 class events. Region 1523 (S28W51)
showed slight decay, while the remaining Regions 1524 (S16E37) and
newly numbered 1525 (S22E36) were quiet and stable. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar Activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next 24 hours
until 1520 rotates further around west limb. Days two and three are
expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at generally quiet levels for the
entire period. A greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
17/1715Z continued throughout the period. The peak value observed
was 136 PFU at 18/0600Z after which the flux levels were generally
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to end on 19 July.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 30/10/05
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 80/10/01
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 110
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 009/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 007/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
This movie was produced by Helioviewer.org. See the original at http://helioviewer.org/?movieId=CyY55 or download a high-quality version from http://helioviewer.org/api/?action=downloadMovie&id=CyY55&format=mp4&hq=true (Less)
Earth 2 05 %282012%29 %281440 px%29 %28Two Covers%29 %28Avalon SCC DCP%29 filepost.com ext: .cbr 24 MB date: 2012-11-06
Source title: earth 2 005 (2012
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